Most metals rise, with LME zinc and SHFE nickel up over 1%, COMEX silver up nearly 3%, and ferrous metals series mostly fluctuating upward [overnight market].

SMM July 11th News:

Metal Market:

Overnight, metals in both domestic and overseas markets generally rose, with only SHFE lead and LME lead falling together. LME lead dropped by 0.92%, and SHFE lead fell by 0.58%. SHFE nickel and LME zinc both rose by over 1%, with LME zinc up by 1.26% and SHFE nickel up by 1.13%. The remaining metals all rose by less than 1%. The main alumina contract rose by 0.38%, and the main casting aluminum contract rose by 0.4%.

Overnight, the ferrous metals series generally rose, with only stainless steel falling, by 0.47%. Rebar, HRC, and iron ore all rose by over 1%, with rebar up by 1.36%, HRC up by 1.39%, and iron ore up by 1.87%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose by 2.6%, and coke rose by 1.52%.

Overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold rose by 0.36%, and COMEX silver rose by 2.72%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.07%, and SHFE silver rose by 1.45%.

As of 6:46 a.m. on July 10th, overnight closing market quotes

》Click to view SMM futures data dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Aspect:

The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference yesterday. A reporter asked, recently, US Secretary of Commerce Raimondo stated that he and other senior US trade officials might meet with Chinese negotiating representatives in early August. Is this true? Are there currently any specific time arrangements or agenda items? In response, He Yongqian, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, said that currently, both sides are maintaining close communication at multiple levels on their respective concerns in the economic and trade fields. It is hoped that the US side will work with the Chinese side in the same direction, uphold the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, give full play to the role of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, continue to strengthen dialogue and communication, and safeguard and implement the important consensus reached in the phone call between the heads of state of the two countries with practical actions, jointly promoting the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-US economic and trade relations, and injecting more certainty and stability into world economic development.

At yesterday's regular press conference of the Ministry of Commerce, the spokesperson responded to whether the Chinese government has taken relevant measures to combat the transshipment and smuggling of key minerals. He Yongqian said that in May this year, the Office of the National Export Control Coordination Mechanism of China has already deployed a special action to combat the smuggling and export of strategic minerals. Relevant information can be found on the website of the Ministry of Commerce.

On July 9th local time, Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded to this, saying that China has always opposed the overgeneralization of the concept of national security. We also always believe that there are no winners in tariff wars or trade wars, and the indiscriminate imposition of tariffs does not serve the interests of any party.

US Dollar Aspect:

Overnight, the US dollar index rose by 0.08%, closing at 97.58. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note rose after data showed an unexpected decline in weekly jobless claims. The yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.352%. Minutes from the US Fed's latest meeting also boosted market optimism, with most policymakers deeming an interest rate cut appropriate later this year. The minutes from the June 17-18 Fed meeting released on Wednesday revealed that policymakers remained concerned about inflationary pressures from Trump's tariffs, with only "a few" officials stating at the meeting that they believed a rate cut could come as early as this month.

In other currencies:

The US dollar rose 0.37% against the Swiss franc to 0.797, poised to gain after two consecutive days of declines. It held steady against the yen at 146.235.

The euro fell 0.23% to $1.1692 against the US dollar, heading for a second straight daily drop.

Brazilian President Lula said he hoped to resolve through diplomacy Trump's threat to impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports, but vowed reciprocal measures if the tariffs took effect on August 1. Brazil was originally subject to only a 10% baseline tariff.

On the macro front:

Data scheduled for release included the UK's May GDP monthly rate, industrial production monthly/annual rates, seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and seasonally adjusted trade balance, along with Canada's June employment change and unemployment rate, and Switzerland's seasonally adjusted June consumer confidence index.

Additionally, Fed Governor Waller participated in a panel discussion at an event hosted by the Dallas Fed and the Dallas/Fort Worth World Affairs Council, while 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly spoke on the US economic outlook.

Crude oil:

Both benchmarks closed lower overnight, with WTI down 2.21% and Brent falling 1.87%, as investors weighed the potential impact of Trump's tariff measures on global growth. Onyx Capital Group's research head Harry Tchilinguirian noted markets had grown less reactive to such announcements given Trump's shifting tariff stance. "Given the policy volatility and the administration's demonstrated flexibility on tariffs, people are largely in wait-and-see mode," Tchilinguirian said.

OPEC+ producers are expected to approve another significant production increase for September, marking the near-completion of the phased unwinding of voluntary cuts by eight members, while the UAE transitions to a higher output quota. However, Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said that as oil demand may peak, OPEC+ indicated that it might pause production increases in October.

In the foreword of OPEC's latest World Oil Outlook (WOO), OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghai wrote, "Oil demand will not peak." The report projects that global oil demand will grow by approximately 19% from now to 2050, reaching 123 million barrels per day. OPEC has revised downward its forecast for oil demand growth for all years from 2025 to 2029. (Wenhua Comprehensive)